During a opulent exclusive gathering hosted at Raffles establishment in central London this week, prominent figures of what is left of the Conservative party marked a major magazine's parliamentarian of the year awards.
Given the publication's stance still just about backing the Tories, despite the party facing an existential crisis posed by Reform, it was unsurprising that much of the gossip during the upscale reception was about the security of the leader's position faced threats.
Leadership Rivalries Surface at Ceremony
One senior figure, who unsuccessfully ran, couldn’t resist a dig during his speech targeting the obvious aspirations of a fellow frontbencher, Robert Jenrick – considered the main challenger.
“Do I seek her position? Will I make a move against the leader and steal the crown? No, of course I’m not,” the veteran Tory cabinet minister told the laughing audience as he opened the evening's proceedings.
Jenrick, who came second, has recently shifted sharply rightward to counter Reform's influence, did at least manage to chuckle. His own manoeuvres have been anything but subtle.
Deadline to Leadership Contest Starts
Months ago, a dissatisfied MP initiated a public timer on social media of the days left before party regulations permit rivals to mount a challenge. That period concludes on Sunday.
At that point, opponents within the party can formally request a leadership election. The rules changed last year raising the required support, meaning 30% of the party’s 119 MPs must endorse, up from 15%, creating a higher bar for those trying to oust her.
Possible Contenders and Support
Is it feasible for opponents – primarily Jenrick – persuade the 36 MPs needed to initiate proceedings? Party sources reference the numbers who nominated him in the leadership contest: twenty-eight initially. “That forms the baseline,” according to insiders.
There is no shortage of Conservative legislators ready to express their frustrations about Badenoch: her style, her decision-making, her ability to cut through. However, generally, they are hesitant about committing yet another act of political regicide so soon.
Breathing Space and Election Concerns
Several party members further think her performance at the autumn party conference, unveiling plans of abolishing stamp duty on primary homes, secured her a few months of breathing space.
“We might not be happy with the current leadership but we’ll be very careful regarding a change. Voters already perceive we fight like rats in a sack. We don’t need to give them further confirmation,” an anonymous legislator stated.
This doesn't mean planning has ceased. “Kemi has until May. The local elections could be disastrous for us. Nobody is going to want to take over before that and bear responsibility. However, post-elections, we must find a leader capable of guiding in a new direction,” one shadow cabinet minister commented.
Survey Figures and Public Opinion
Recent surveys indicate the leader has gained minimal ground with the public over the last year and that she has fallen in terms of her personal ratings. At -22 points, her standing is lower than Jenrick (-16) and Mel Stride (-21), per recent polling.
Data from YouGov further reveals that the leader has persuaded only 12% of Britons she is ready for higher office. The outlook improves among Conservative voters, with 54% saying she has done a good job as party leader, and only 30% saying she should not lead into the national campaign.
Upcoming Possibilities and Party Dynamics
But while Tory supporters are ambivalent, there appears to be a consensus within parliamentary ranks that a change is inevitable to lead the party into the next election.
The main division centers on timing for a spring leadership change and have a chance at stopping the rival party's advance – or leave it until closer to the general election if Reform falters, and public receptiveness improves to listen to the Tories again.
It is no secret that the challenger believes he is the right candidate. But his allies say he won't act immediately, and agrees with those advocating patience until spring.
Alternative Contenders and Approaches
There is also a theory that a rescuer could emerge from less expected less prominent figures (one junior minister is sometimes suggested) or a member of the new intake with less obvious links to the party’s time in power.
Cleverly, who came third, is also cited as a consensus builder, and has been keeping his powder dry. Supporters indicate he thinks there is no alternative than current leadership, since a new leader immediately would face greater challenges.
However, if a contest were to be triggered, some would certainly encourage his candidacy, and he might reconsider to give it another shot. A small group of centrist MPs are organizing a rearguard action to prevent Jenrick from being crowned leader in any eventual contest.
Rightward Movement and Electoral Considerations
An influential insider cautioned that momentum favors right-wingers both inside and outside the party, mentioning names like Jenrick, Neil O’Brien, Katie Lam and Nick Timothy. “Opportunity exists for Cleverly as he has the stature and membership connections, while others oppose Jenrick completely.”
“Many are considering are on the need for a pact or coalition with Reform eventually. Recent parliamentary divisions regarding assisted suicide and decriminalising abortion there was a lot of ‘we need to kick the people of dissenters and Reform’s private messaging suggests Liberal Democrat you’d have to get rid of’. This advantages in Robert’s favour a bit.”
However, another added: “The outcome remains a foregone conclusion. We could have a strong competition involving multiple candidates – other prominent figures. The assumption that conservatives always wins the membership is not necessarily the case.”
